Crypto whales bet big on Trump win ahead of US election

Donald Trump’s “Yes” votes on the leading decentralized prediction market are largely controlled by a few mysterious entities as political bettors place millions of dollars in votes ahead of the United States elections.

Over 50% of the Trump shares have been acquired by five whales, or large investors, according to pseudonymous political bettor Domer.

This could result in an over $81 million payday for the whales, Domer wrote in an Oct. 31 X post:

“Trump Yes shares are very highly concentrated. 5 fat cat accounts own 50% of the 162 million shares — including the Le Giga Whale with nearly 1/3rd by himself. Those 5 will be paid out $81 million if Trump wins.”

In contrast, shares for Vice President Kamala Harris are more distributed, with the top five shareholders holding 18% of her “Yes” votes. Harris’ largest shareholder holds only 4.4% of her shares, while Trump’s top shareholder controls 29.1%, Domer added.

The revelation comes days ahead of the US presidential election, which is becoming a focal point for crypto investors, as it could shape the regulatory landscape of the industry for the next four years.

At least four of the top six Trump bettors, including accounts “zxgngl” and “Fredi9999,” may be controlled by the same entity with a strong belief in Trump’s victory, Domer told Cointelegraph:

“My guess is it is a true believer who is very rich and trying to make a big bet. He is getting more confident as the price goes higher and is in a confirmation bias loop where new information keeps increasing his confidence.”

Related: Stablecoins essential for US dollar’s future, says Paxos CEO

Trump continues to lead, but polling results differ

Despite some weekend volatility, Trump remains in the lead on the leading decentralized betting market, Polymarket.

Trump’s odds for a presidential victory currently stand at 56.9%, while Harris’ are at 43%, according to Polymarket data.

However, Trump’s lead is smaller in other betting markets. Over on Kalshi, 54% of bettors are anticipating a Trump victory, while 46% have voted for Harris.

Yet, traditional polling systems paint an entirely different picture. Harris’ odds of a presidential victory are at 49% compared to Trump’s 48%, according to The New York Times’ national polling average.

Decentralized prediction markets may offer more accurate predictions than traditional polling systems, as investors are voting with their savings, according to billionaire Elon Musk.

The Polymarket odds flipped in Trump’s favor on Oct. 4, marking a sharp reversal from September. By Oct. 12, Trump was leading by over 10 points, Cointelegraph reported.

Related: Coinbase hit with $300M token listing allegations by Sun and Cronje

Bitcoin investors take profit as Trump’s odds see volatility

The volatility in Polymarket odds, paired with Harris’ newfound lead on traditional polling systems has inspired some profit-taking.

This was the main reason for Bitcoin’s (BTC) correction, according to Valentin Fournier, analyst at BRN. He told Cointelegraph:

“At the end of last week, newly released polls showed Harris with a narrow 2–3% lead. Given Trump’s pro-crypto stance and his ambition to position America as a digital asset leader, his potential loss is perceived as a short- to medium-term setback for Bitcoin’s growth potential. This political shift has contributed to recent profit-taking, reinforcing Bitcoin’s ongoing price correction.”

Some analysts have called Bitcoin’s October price action a “Trump pump,” as its price appreciation was seemingly correlated with Trump’s rising odds of a presidential victory. Bitcoin price rose above $73,600 on Oct. 29 reaching its highest level since March 2024, just $200 shy of a new all-time high.

Yet, other analysts believe that the current rally is simply a “Trump hedge” that lacks the fundamental macroeconomic conditions to lead to a new all-time high after the Nov. 5 elections.

Magazine: Microsoft set to vote on Bitcoin, Peter Todd hiding, and more: Hodler’s Digest, Oct. 20–26