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Cardano (ADA) has maintained a relatively steady upward trend over the past few weeks. Although the cryptocurrency was rejected at the $0.84 price level again last week, the current price action is still holding strong with only a minor drop in the past 24 hours. However, technical analysis deeply rooted in Elliott Wave theory now suggest a steep price decline could be looming for ADA, with a price target pointing as low as $0.42 in the weeks ahead.
Bearish Elliott Wave Count Says Wave C Breakdown Ahead
According to the Elliott Wave count presented in a technical analysis on TradingView, Cardano (ADA) looks like it is currently wrapping up a B-wave correction that has formed over the past months between April and June 2025. This B wave is part of a larger corrective phase, and while it may appear impulsive on lower timeframes, the Elliott wave theory suggests that it is merely a trap before the final C-wave crash.
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Based on this forecast, the price of Cardano could soon initiate a sharp decline that would bottom out near the $0.42 region, which coincides with the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level drawn from the previous impulse.
According to this Elliott wave count, this ABC formation is all part of a larger corrective Wave 4 before a bullish Wave 5. Keeping this in mind, the prediction stipulates that ADA should not fall below $0.40, which marks the top of the first major wave in the overall bullish structure. A move lower than that would risk invalidating the broader long-term setup.
Is It Time To Exit Cardano?
If the technical analysis plays out as predicted, the projected crash to $0.42 would translate to a 50% drop from the current price of Cardano. This will undoubtedly sound bad, especially for short-term holders. However, this bearish wave could also be a hidden opportunity.
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As shown in the ADA 4H candlestick chart above, the projected Wave C crash to $0.42 would be followed by a bullish impulse Wave 5 that will push it above the $1 mark again. Specifically, the target is a push towards $1.6. Keeping this in mind, if ADA indeed corrects toward $0.42–$0.40, it would provide a good accumulation zone before the next leg up.
Although this bearish forecast is well supported by Elliott Wave principles, it is by no means a guaranteed outcome. ADA and other large market-cap cryptocurrencies are currently highly reactive to Bitcoin’s price action. If Bitcoin extends its rally and breaks into new all-time highs again soon, the projected ADA correction may either be muted or entirely invalidated. As such, it would be interesting to see how the ADA price action plays out in the next few days.
At the time of writing, ADA is trading at $0.7706, down by 0.2% in the past 24 hours.
Featured image from Adobe Stock, chart from Tradingview.com
